A new method for predicting the shelf life of milk powder based on the global stability index (GSI) theory was established. Under the accelerated storage conditions at different constant temperatures (20, 30, 40 and 50 ℃), changes in sensory quality, vitamin C content, hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) content and water activity were monitored for the purpose of establishing the shelf life prediction model. Results demonstrated that the calculated values of GSI were satisfactorily fitted to a zero-order kinetic model. The activation energy and the pre-exponential constant were 49.47 kJ/mol and 4 474 924, respectively. The absolute value of relative error between the predicted and observed GSI values was within 20%. The product shelf life at 20, 30, 40 and 50 ℃ was calculated to be 147.5, 75.5, 40.3 and 22.4 d, respectively. The established model could effectively predict the shelf life of milk powder at storage temperatures in the range of 20 to 50 ℃.